The Security Situation in Dubai, the UAE, and the Wider Middle East

On 28th February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran (Operation Epic Fury), targeting command-and-control infrastructure, ballistic missile capabilities, air defence systems, and senior IRGC personnel. Iran retaliated with waves of missile and drone strikes against US military assets and Gulf state infrastructure across the region. Since the start of this conflict, we have been producing daily situation reports that provide an overview of the situation and best advise our clients in the region and our operatives on the ground.

Because events are fluid, we will share the most important daily reports with the professional security community, including private security firms, risk consultants, government liaisons, and any civilians in the area concerned about their safety.

Links to the reports in PDF format follow below. The password to open the documents is Westminster Security.

Here’s the updated SITREP, current as of 06:00 GMT on 30 March 2026 (Day 31): – UAE SitRep Document 30th March. This is the eleventh daily edition in the series. Three lead developments drive this edition:

1. Trump: “Take the oil in Iran” / Kharg Island. In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and is actively considering seizing Kharg Island, acknowledging US forces would need to stay “for a while.” This is the most explicit ground-operation signal yet — not a raid, but an occupation plan. The USS Tripoli has arrived with 3,500 troops, bringing the total number of new deployments above 15,000. New dedicated section analysing the shift from air campaign to potential ground war.

2. Kuwait desalination plant struck — first water infrastructure attack in the Gulf. An Indian worker was killed in an Iranian attack on a power and desalination plant in Kuwait. This crosses a threshold that was previously theoretical. New section on the existential implications for the UAE, where nearly all drinking water comes from desalination. Clients advised to update water supply contingency plans.

3. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) confirmed struck. Several employees were wounded, and there was “significant damage.” EGA is one of the world’s largest aluminium smelters and a cornerstone of the UAE’s non-oil industrial economy. This demonstrates that Iran is now targeting the UAE’s industrial infrastructure beyond the energy sector.

Other key additions:

• IRGC university deadline is TODAY (30 March). All previous guidance on NYU Abu Dhabi, Texas A&M Qatar, and Northwestern Qatar remains in force.
• Iran insists Lebanon must be part of any ceasefire – a new condition that links any deal to ending the Hezbollah war, vastly complicating diplomacy.
• Trump claims Iran agreed to “most of” 15 points – most optimistic US diplomatic signal yet, but Iran’s parliament speaker simultaneously accuses the US of “secretly planning ground invasion.”
• Islamabad talks resume Monday – Pakistan/Turkey/Egypt/Saudi FMs to reconvene.
• Tehran hit again – residential areas struck; a family of 4 killed in Bushehr; a water facility hit in Khuzestan.
• Kurdish region president Barzani’s residence was attacked, condemned by both the UAE and the Syrian governments.
• UNIFIL peacekeeper killed in Lebanon.
• Australia: Two states (Victoria, Tasmania) are offering free public transport from April due to fuel costs.
• Brent crude up 50%+ since war began; IEA confirms biggest oil shock in history.

Here’s the updated SITREP, current as of 06:00 GMT on 29 March 2026 (Day 30) – UAE SitRep Document 29th March. This is the tenth daily SITREP in the series. The war enters its second month with several major escalatory developments:

Lead story — IRGC threatens US university campuses in the Gulf. This is flagged as the most direct threat to UAE civilian life since the war began. The IRGC has demanded that students, staff, and nearby residents stay at least 1 km from American university campuses, specifically putting NYU Abu Dhabi, Texas A&M Qatar, and Northwestern Qatar at risk. The deadline for the US government to condemn strikes on Iranian universities is 30 March — tomorrow. A new dedicated section covers the operational implications for the Saadiyat Island area (NYU Abu Dhabi’s location, which is surrounded by the Louvre Abu Dhabi, hotels, and residential communities).

Other major new content:

• Israel struck two Iranian nuclear facilities, including a uranium processing plant. The IAEA confirmed there was no leak but called for “restraint.” Iran warned of a “heavy price” and accused the US/Israel of “playing with fire.” New section on nuclear escalation risk.
• US casualties at Prince Sultan updated to 15 wounded (up from 10), with at least 5 in serious condition. Refuelling aircraft damaged.
• Houthis fired at Israel a second time (28 March), confirming their sustained entry into the war.
• Islamabad talks TODAY – foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia meeting. First multilateral diplomatic forum since the war began. New dedicated section.
• Iran allows 20 Pakistani-flagged ships through Hormuz (2/day) – Pakistan FM called it “a harbinger of peace.” First concession on maritime access.
• Iran’s parliament speaker, Ghalibaf, accused the US of “secretly planning a ground invasion” while publicly talking about diplomacy.
• Zelensky intelligence: Russia surveilled 7 Western/Gulf bases this week – in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and Diego Garcia. Corroborates EU/UK accusations and suggests Russian targeting data for Iranian strikes.
• Bahrain: Major aluminium smelter struck, 2 injured.
• Lebanon: 1,189 killed; 9 paramedics killed in one day; WHO reports 4 hospitals and 50+ primary care centres closed.
• Iran internal: IRGC lowered the age for participation in intelligence/security patrols to 12.
• German Chancellor Merz: Regime change “unlikely” and has “mostly gone wrong” historically.
• US assessment: ~1/3 of Iran’s missile arsenal destroyed with certainty.

The document now carries two watch dates: the IRGC university deadline (30 March — tomorrow) and the energy strikes deadline (6 April).

Here’s the updated SITREP, current as of 06:00 GMT on 28 March 2026 – UAE SitRep Document 28th March the one-month anniversary of the war (Day 29). This is a landmark edition with three major escalatory developments:

1. Houthis enter the war – new front opens. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched their first missile attack on Israel since the war began. This is flagged as the most strategically significant development since the conflict started. The critical implication: Saudi Aramco has been rerouting oil exports via the Yanbu pipeline to the Red Sea as an alternative to Hormuz. The Houthis previously attacked 100+ merchant vessels in the Red Sea. If they resume, both Hormuz and the Red Sea/Suez route will be simultaneously contested — the worst-case scenario for global energy markets. A new dedicated section and monitoring indicator have been added.

2. 10 US troops wounded at Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia. An Iranian strike damaged a refuelling aircraft. This is the most significant direct attack on US forces in the Gulf since the war began. Total US casualties now 13 KIA, 290+ wounded.

3. UAE absorbed the heaviest single-day bombardment in weeks. 20 ballistic missiles and 37 drones engaged in one day. Fires at Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (KEZAD), a critical industrial hub between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, 6 injured.

Other key additions:

• Iran civilian toll updated: 93,000+ structures damaged (up from 82,000); 1,900+ killed; 20,000+ injured.
• Lebanon: 1,142 killed; 3,315 wounded. Israeli ground troops are pushing north.
• Iranian missile killed 1 person in Tel Aviv on 28 March.
• Iran’s FM targeting hotels: Araghchi urged Gulf hotels to deny US military bookings, claiming soldiers are using “GCC citizens as human shields.” A new briefing requirement has been added for hotel-based clients.
• Oman: Salalah port struck by drones.
• Australia: New fuel security measures announced.
• Trump: Called NATO “a paper tiger”; said he is “very disappointed.”
• Departure advisory strengthened to its most urgent language yet: “Westminster Security strongly recommends departure for all non-essential personnel.”

UAE SitRep Document 27th March

The updated SITREP, current as of 06:00 GMT on 27 March 2026 (Day 28). This is a significant edition with several major developments:

The critical date has shifted. Trump extended the energy strikes deadline by 10 days to 6 April 2026, replacing the 28 March deadline that had been the focus of the last four SITREPs. All critical date references, monitoring guidance, and planning horizons have been updated throughout.

Key new content:

• IRGC declares Strait fully closed to allied shipping – shipping “to and from ports of allies and supporters of the Israeli-American enemies” is now prohibited. Only 6 ships/day transiting (from 130 pre-war). Iran’s parliament is legislating transit fees. This is a hardening of Iran’s position, not de-escalation.
• UAE reportedly willing to join a Hormuz force – potentially shifting from passive defence to active participant. New dedicated section analysing implications (if confirmed, makes UAE a legitimate military target in Iran’s calculus).
• Russia’s role formally exposed – EU accuses Russia of intelligence support “to kill Americans” and drone technology supply. UK defence chief cites “hidden hand of Putin.” New section added. This adds a Russia-West proxy dimension to the conflict.
• Israel struck Isfahan and killed the IRGC Navy commander – the officer directly responsible for the Hormuz blockade.
• US weighing 10,000 additional ground troops – on top of the 82nd Airborne (~3,000, upgraded from initial ~2,000) and two MEUs (~9,000). Trump said taking Iran’s oil is “an option.”
• Iran warned of an island seizure attempt – a clear reference to Kharg Island.
• Iran death toll updated to 1,900+; 120+ museums and cultural sites damaged.
• Lebanon: 1,116 killed, 3,229 wounded. Israeli ground troops have crossed the border.
• New Zealand added to the advisory status table – activated a 4-tier fuel shortage plan, including potential rationing.
• Pakistan FM Dar confirmed relaying messages; Turkey and Egypt are also mediating.
• Iran’s FM urged Gulf hotels to deny bookings to US military, claiming soldiers have “fled bases to hide in hotels.”

UAE SitRep Document 26th March

• Updated UAE strike figures: 357 ballistic missiles, 1,815 drones, 15 cruise missiles – up from 341/1,748. Ninth fatality confirmed. 166 injured (up from 157).
• 2,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz – a major new humanitarian dimension. France’s military chief is planning talks to restore navigation.
• Iran is charging transit fees for Hormuz passage – effectively monetising control of the waterway.
• UNHRC unanimous resolution condemning Iran’s attacks, backed by 100+ countries. IMO resolution with 115+ co-sponsors (largest in IMO history).
• Iran’s updated death toll: 1,750+ killed (first official figure in weeks).
• Iraq escalation: The Iraqi government formally granted Iran-backed PMF the right to respond to US attacks. Islamic Resistance claims 23 operations in 24 hours.
• Japan is releasing 30 days’ worth of its oil reserves – its largest-ever release.
• US domestic opposition: Pew 59% wrong decision; AP-NORC 60% gone too far. NCTC Director Joe Kent resigned.
• Israel is expanding reserve mobilisation to 400,000 (from 280,000). Israel says it’s “not part of US-Iran talks.”
• Lebanon: 1,072 killed; 33 in the last 24 hours alone. Mass evacuations of Beirut southern suburbs ordered.
• Departure advisory strengthened – Westminster Security now recommends “active consideration of departure” for non-essential personnel, the strongest language used in any SITREP to date.

Here’s the updated SITREP, current as of 06:00 GMT on 25 March 2026 (Day 26): UAE SitRep Document 25th March

The key changes from the 24 March edition:
Dominant new development – 82nd Airborne deployment ordered. This is the headline change. ~2,000 paratroopers (including division commander Maj. Gen. Tegtmeier) were ordered to the Middle East, alongside two Marine Expeditionary Units (~9,000 Marines/sailors). This makes ~61,000 US troops in or en route to the region – the largest ground force buildup since the 2003 Iraq invasion. Analysts identify Kharg Island (90% of Iran’s oil exports) as the most likely target. The SITREP includes a new dedicated section on ground operation planning and its implications for Gulf security. Other key additions:

• The Philippines declares a national emergency – the first non-Middle Eastern country to do so, over energy supply. Added to the advisory status table.
• Iran fires 7 missile waves at Israel overnight (24-25 March), demonstrating continued capability despite Trump’s “war is won” claims.
• 12 killed, 28 wounded in southern Tehran strike on 25 March.
• Kuwait International Airport fuel tank struck by drone.
• Pro-Iranian militia drone attack on US Baghdad base – video showing strikes on radar system and approach to Black Hawk helicopter.
• Trump says Vance and Rubio are leading negotiations; Iran’s military dismisses all talks and vows “complete victory.”
• China urges Iran to engage in talks “as soon as possible.”
• Republicans block congressional authorisation vote.
• North Korea’s Kim Jong Un cites the war as proof that nuclear weapons are necessary.
• Monitoring indicators added to the footer: 82nd Airborne staging movements, US embassy evacuation orders, and Kharg Island activity.

Here’s the updated SITREP, current as of 06:00 GMT on 24 March 2026 (Day 25): UAE SitRep Document 24th March

Major new content:

ADNOC energy infrastructure disclosure – the biggest single addition. ADNOC CEO Al Jaber publicly confirmed at CERAWeek that Iranian strikes hit Shah gas plant (20% of UAE gas supply, suspended), Habshan gas facility (suspended), and Ruwais refinery (922,000 bbl/day, fire). He described the Hormuz closure as “economic terrorism against every nation.” This fundamentally changes the risk picture from urban debris damage to strategic-level degradation of the UAE’s economic backbone.

Diplomatic confusion – new section covering the contradictory signals: Trump claims 15 points of agreement and productive talks; Iran calls it “fake news” and a “big lie”; but Iran’s FM separately confirmed receiving “points from the US through mediators.” Pakistan has offered to host talks. An Israeli official says a deal “does not appear tangible.”

Tel Aviv missile strike (24 March) – An Iranian missile hit central Tel Aviv unintercepted, ~220 lbs of explosives, at least 4 casualties. Demonstrates continued offensive capability.

Other updates integrated throughout: Iran appoints new security chief Zolghadr (replacing killed Larijani); Lebanon ambassador expelled; Israel declares security zone to Litani River with “Gaza model” threats; Saudi intercepts 20 drones targeting Eastern Province; Kuwait alarms 7 times in one night; Bahrain totals (153 missiles, 301 drones intercepted); UK PM emergency meeting; European economic impact data; USS Gerald R. Ford arrival in Greece; and Iran’s internal crackdown (68 spies arrested, 82,000+ structures damaged).

Critical watch date of 28 March flagged throughout – when Trump’s 5-day postponement expires.

Here’s the updated SITREP, current as of 06:00 GMT on 23 March 2026 (Day 24): UAE SitRep Document 23rd March

The key developments integrated since the 20 March edition:

• Critical escalation – the Hormuz ultimatum: Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum (issued 22 March) demanding Iran reopen the Strait or face strikes on power plants, Iran’s defiant response threatening to mine the entire Persian Gulf and strike Gulf power plants (including Barakah nuclear facility), and Trump’s 5-day postponement announced the morning of 23 March.
• Updated figures: UAE interception totals updated to 341 ballistic missiles and 1,748 drones; Brent crude up to ~$112/barrel; photography arrests now at 199+ (including the 109 detained by Abu Dhabi Police announced 20 March); IEA formally declaring the crisis worse than the 1970s oil shocks.
• New developments woven throughout: Iran’s direct threat to Ras Al Khaimah over disputed islands; dismantling of the Hezbollah/Iran terror network inside the UAE (19 March); Iran’s strikes on Dimona/Arad near Israel’s nuclear facility; Diego Garcia missile attempt; Saudi Arabia targeted; Lebanon escalation (Qasimiyah Bridge, 5th IDF division preparing); abandoned pets crisis; AI-generated content prosecutions; and the timeline extended through to 23 March.
• The document preserves the original structure and section numbering, with a new “Phase 6” added to Iran’s target set and the private security section updated to reflect the compressed 24-hour decision cycle.

Here’s the updated SITREP, current as of 06:00 GMT on 20 March 2026 (Day 21): UAE SitRep Document 20th March